We found the problem… turns out all working as it should, I was just confused.
In case anyone else is wondering. When you look at your license panel and it says “Unlocks Releases Dawn of Time–October 27, 2023” … that means when a new release is made (after Oct 27) then you will be asked to renew. The check is made against the release date of the version of Bike that you are using, not the calendar date.
I should have known that!